The cement industry volumes grew by 3-5% year-on-year (YoY) during October-November 2024, despite a challenging October due to unseasonal rains, a high base from the previous year, and the overlap of festive seasons. Notably, November saw a significant 20-22% YoY growth, recovering from October’s 10-11% decline.
For 2HFY25, volume growth is projected at 8-9% YoY, with expectations of a strong start to FY26 during the Mar-Jun period, typically the peak consumption window.
Cement prices have largely remained flat month-on-month (MoM) in November 2024. Historically, second-half realizations have trended lower by 1-6% compared to the first half over FY13-24. Competitive pricing pressures could pose risks to FY25 earnings if these trends persist.
According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) report, the Indian cement industry is expected to see a robust recovery in the second half of FY25, driven by pent-up demand, a rebound in government capex, and sustained momentum in the real estate and housing sectors.
