The latest study has revealed that the world’s biggest corporations are responsible for an estimated USD 28 trillion (£22.5 trillion) in climate-related damage, laying the foundation for future accountability efforts that could mirror those seen in the tobacco industry. The research, led by scientists from Dartmouth College and published in Nature, directly attributes the economic cost of global heating to specific corporate polluters.
The analysis focused on 111 major companies, identifying fossil fuel giants as the dominant contributors. Ten of these, including Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, and Shell, were linked to over half of the total damage. The estimated figure is nearly equivalent to the entire annual economic output of the United States, underlining the sheer scale of the harm caused.
Using extensive historical emissions data stretching back 137 years, the researchers traced the long-term impact of these companies' products, such as coal, oil, and gas, on global temperatures. They then applied advanced computer simulations to model how these emissions altered the planet’s average surface temperature, compared to a scenario without their influence.
The findings show that even single firms have measurably shifted the global climate. For example, emissions attributed to one major oil company alone have been found to have increased global temperatures by 0.025°C enough to intensify extreme heat events. By modelling the connection between heat and economic productivity, the study translated this warming into tangible financial losses.
This approach builds on methods long used to link specific weather events, including extreme heatwaves, floods, and droughts, to climate change. The difference now is the ability to trace these impacts back to individual emitters, highlighting their role in fuelling climate hazards.
The study comes as legal efforts to hold fossil fuel companies liable for climate damage are gaining momentum, particularly in the United States, where more than 30 lawsuits are currently in progress. Until now, however, efforts to quantify corporate responsibility have been hindered by the complexity of climate systems and a lack of precise attribution methods.
This new research marks a turning point. By offering a clearer scientific basis for climate accountability, it opens the door for more informed legal and policy actions. While the figures may still underestimate the true extent of damage, given they focus primarily on heat and exclude many other climate-related impacts, they underscore the vast economic burden imposed by a handful of powerful emitters. As the global community grapples with the worsening climate crisis, this study provides a critical tool for those seeking justice, transparency, and long-overdue change.
