The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China’s growth this year to 5%, from 4.6% previously, due to “strong” first quarter figures and recent policy measures.
The upgrade followed an IMF visit to China for a regular assessment. The organization now expects China’s economy to grow by 4.5% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of 4.1%.
But by 2029, they anticipate China’s growth will decelerate to 3.3% due to an aging population and slower productivity growth. That’s down from the IMF’s prior forecast of 3.5% growth in the medium term.
China’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 5.3% in the first quarter, supported by strong exports. Data for April showed consumer spending remained sluggish, while industrial activity picked up. About two weeks ago, Chinese authorities announced sweeping measures to support the struggling real estate sector, including removing the floor on mortgage rates.
The policy moves are “welcome,” but more comprehensive action is needed, Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said in a statement.
“The priority should be to mobilize central government resources to protect buyers of pre-sold unfinished homes and accelerate the completion of unfinished presold housing, paving the way for resolving insolvent developers,” she said.
“Allowing for greater price flexibility, while monitoring and mitigating potential macro-financial spillovers, can further stimulate housing demand and help restore equilibrium.”
