Melbourne has overtaken Sydney to become Australia’s largest city by population — thanks to a technicality. The borders of the city, which is the capital of the state of Victoria, have been redrawn to include the district of Melton, allowing Melbourne to leapfrog Sydney.
In its 2022 population statement, Australia’s federal government said Melbourne was projected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city in just under 10 years’ time, in 2031-32. But the newly recast Melbourne has a total of about 5.8 million residents, almost 19,000 more people than Sydney. “It’s because more people have been moving out of Sydney, going to other parts of Australia, than have been moving in the opposite direction. Whereas in the case of Melbourne, in some years more people have moved to Melbourne than have moved out,” Nick Parr, a professor of demography at Macquarie University.”
“But the projections show that Sydney’s population will continue to grow, and also the Melbourne population will continue to grow,” he said, adding that immigration will compensate for the effects of low birth rates in both cities.
Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian National University said that Melbourne’s growth is largely due to international migration over the past decade, as well as internal migration from within Australia and a natural increase from births. Melbourne has become a highly attractive place among more recent waves of overseas migration to Australia, particularly among people born in India. Growing community networks pull subsequent new arrivals from India to the Melbourne area.
The geographic measure tends to be less stable over time noting that the more commonly used, and stable, standard geographic classification of greater capital city shows Sydney is still Australia’s most populous capital. At the current rate of population change, Melbourne will overtake Sydney to take out the top spot in the coming decade.
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