The US housing market is showing signs of a bubble, with Fitch Ratings estimating that 88% of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) had overvalued home prices in the second quarter of 2023. This is a significant increase from the 72% of MSAs that were overvalued in the first quarter of 2023.
The top three overvalued MSAs were Charleston-North Charleston, SC; El Paso, TX; and Camden, NJ. These MSAs had home prices that were more than 20% above their estimated intrinsic values.
Fitch Ratings expects the trend of overvalued homes to continue in 2024 and 2025. Several factors are contributing to this, including:
Rising mortgage rates: As mortgage rates increase, it becomes more expensive to buy a home. This can lead to a decrease in demand and a drop in home prices.
Stagnant housing supply: The supply of new homes has not kept up with demand in recent years. This has led to a shortage of homes on the market, which can drive up prices.
Anticipated increase in the federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the federal funds rate in 2024 and 2025. This will make it more expensive for banks to borrow money, which could lead to higher mortgage rates.
The overvaluation of the US housing market is a cause for concern. If home prices were to fall, it could lead to a wave of defaults and foreclosures. This could have a negative impact on the economy as a whole.
It is important to note that not all MSAs are equally overvalued. Some MSAs, such as San Francisco and New York City, have a history of high home prices and may be less vulnerable to a correction. However, other MSAs, such as those in the Sun Belt, are more likely to see a decline in home prices if the market were to correct.
If you are considering buying a home, it is important to do your research and make sure that you are not paying too much. You should also consider getting a pre-approved mortgage so that you know how much you can afford to borrow.
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