Since the beginning of the millennium, societies, economies, and the Earth itself have been subject to disruptions of increasing frequency and severity. Each evolves differently from the others, but many disruptions have overlapping consequences that can be long lived and are not completely understood at the time of impact. Disruptions are not new, and societies have developed sophisticated ways of managing them, using institutions to create stability against extreme events.
Today, the world is beset by several crises of global importance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has precipitated a humanitarian tragedy with far-reaching social and economic consequences. The refugee crisis stemming from this war amplifies attention on a wider refugee crisis involving tens of millions of people around the globe. The economic and humanitarian repercussions of rising costs of energy and food are likewise intensifying. The war in Ukraine has also shocked a world weary and damaged by the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus has taken more than six million lives, and in April 2022, it is still causing thousands of deaths each day.
The context within which these disruptions occur, furthermore, is an ever-present climate crisis, whose effective mitigation will require a global transition to a low-carbon economy. The human displacement and economic cost this entails could become disruptors of historic proportions in their own right.
The current era is increasingly defined by the interplay of complex disruptions, with their disparate origins and long-term consequences. Institutions are not fully prepared for the new reality, often reacting separately to each disruption.
This position is untenable and organizations are finding that their current risk management practices must evolve to suit this new environment. Leaders are now discussing resilience as the essential condition. How can public- and private-sector organizations arrive at a resilient stance, alert to what is over the horizon, ready to withstand shocks and accelerate into the next reality? Resilience has been described as the ability to recover quickly but recovery alone is not an adequate goal. Truly resilient organizations bounce back better and even thrive.
Disruptions are focal points that reveal where capabilities are strong and where investment is needed. The experience of past crises and disruptions teaches essential lessons on how to proceed. These lessons will contribute to the architecture of the common resilience framework across the public and private sectors.
- Managing disruptions defines sustainable growth more than managing continuity
- Crises evolve across categories and do not have single-point solutions
- Networks hide interdependencies, accelerating crises (although they can also enable faster recovery)
- Lack of preparation and inadequate responses can magnify the damage of crises
- Crises disproportionately affect the most vulnerable
- Crisis preparedness goes beyond financial reserves and buffers
Resilience pertains to public- and private-sector organizations, as well as to whole economies and societies. The resilient stance for organizations must be forward-looking, anticipating disruption rather than simply reacting, but continuously learning and amending based on experience.
