The office sector has seen sustained growth in demand in 2023 despite the global sluggishness and is poised to achieve next level of growth in 2024 according to JLL recent report.
Net absorption from Jan-Sep 2023 was at 26 mn sq ft which is 68% of 2022 full year number. In 2023, net absorption in office market is expected to be at par with 2022 to close at 37-39 mn sq ft. With leasing activity expected to further pick up pace in the last quarter of 2023, the year is expected to surpass the 2017-2019 average. The office markets’ performance is a testament to the strong fundamentals of demand and the absence of any lasting effects of the global headwinds. In 2024, Net absorption is further expected to increase by 20-22% to touch 45-47 mn sq ft.
Despite a 23.9% year-on-year decrease in supply during the first nine months of 2023, it is anticipated to strengthen and reach approximately 47-49 mn sq ft by the end of the year. In line with the net absorption, the supply in 2023 will be higher than the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average. In 2024, it is expected to increase by 22-23% y-o-y to reach 58-60 mn sq ft. It is seen that there is a trend of flight to quality creating demand polarization towards buildings owned by institutional owners and established developers.
Headline vacancy is expected to remain within 16-17% range by end of the year. With a strong supply pipeline of 55-60 mn sq ft lined up in 2024, vacancy is likely to remain sticky at 16-17% on the back of strong demand. Core markets, however, will continue to see single digit vacancy levels.
In 9M 2023, there is a slight decline in space take-up by tech firms but is still likely to account for the biggest share in gross leasing by the end of the year. Other segments such as manufacturing / industrial, BFSI and Consulting through setting up of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) strengthened their participation in leasing activity. Interestingly, GCCs have a 54% share in active office space requirements in top seven cities of India.
With sustained demand for flexible and managed enterprise services, flex leasing in 2023 is expected to surpass the previous peak achieved in 2022 to close at ~145,000 seats. 9M 2023 is already ~80% of the total seats leased in the full year 2022. In 2024, around 150,000+ seats are expected to be leased by flex segment. There is sustained demand for flex as an essential element of occupier strategies which now assimilate both conventional and on-demand flex spaces for portfolio optimization and better employee experience.
