Poland’s residential property market in 2025 is showing a clear shift toward stability after years of rapid growth and government-driven interventions. Following a period of sharp acceleration in 2023 and early 2024, housing prices are now moderating, signaling a market that is gradually finding its balance. Across the country’s seven largest cities—Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk, and Gdynia—the average price of existing homes in the third quarter of 2025 stood at PLN 13,382 per square meter (USD 3,687), reflecting a marginal 0.91% year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, new homes saw a slight increase of 0.11%, averaging PLN 14,254 (USD 3,928) per square meter, highlighting stability rather than growth.
Regional differences remain notable. Warsaw continues to lead as the priciest market, with secondary homes averaging PLN 16,405 per square meter and new units close behind at PLN 16,294. Kraków follows as the second-most expensive market, while Łódź offers more affordable options. Cities such as Gdańsk and Gdynia even recorded modest price increases in certain segments, indicating pockets of resilience amid overall market moderation.
This period of price stabilization coincides with new regulatory measures introduced in September 2025. Developers are now required to disclose full pricing histories and current prices for all listed dwellings. The move prompted many builders to adjust their price lists, with around 25% of primary-market listings seeing corrections. Analysts note that these changes improved transparency without significantly affecting average market prices.
Looking ahead, market watchers expect modest upward pressure on prices to continue in the medium term. Cushman & Wakefield point to constrained supply, persistent end-user demand, and limited alternative investment vehicles as key factors supporting residential property as a preferred asset class in Poland. Escalating land costs and tighter regulatory frameworks for developers further strengthen this outlook.
Historically, Poland’s housing market has gone through multiple cycles influenced by policy, affordability, and supply constraints. Rapid pre-crisis growth in 2006-2007 was followed by a downturn in 2008-2009 as global turbulence and tighter lending standards hit the market. Recovery between 2014 and 2016 laid the groundwork for a strong upswing in 2017-2019, supported by low interest rates, rising incomes, and limited land availability in key cities.
The COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated housing demand. In 2020-2021, annual price growth consistently hovered around 10-12%, aided by near-zero interest rates, resilient household incomes, and shifts in housing preferences. From 2022 onward, rising mortgage rates slowed affordability, leading to more cautious market behavior. Government schemes like “Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%” briefly reignited demand, but once these subsidies ended, growth moderated, setting the stage for the current stabilization phase.
Demand today is led by end-user purchases rather than investors. Sales in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled nearly 30,000 units across six major markets, with Q2 and Q3 showing slight year-on-year increases. Buyers who had been waiting on government mortgage programs, such as the “First Keys” initiative, moved forward with purchases, while cash buyers increasingly dominated the market. Tri-City and Warsaw saw the strongest growth in new-unit sales, reflecting more balanced supply-to-sales ratios. In contrast, cities like Łódź continue to struggle with historically high unsold inventory.
Investment demand remains subdued, weighed down by potential property tax hikes and geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts expect this trend to continue, keeping the market largely driven by those purchasing for personal use. Interest rate cuts in late 2025 and 2026 are likely to support further sales growth, but mortgage rates are expected to remain above 5% in the medium term, limiting speculative activity.
On the supply side, residential construction activity has softened as developers adopt a cautious stance. Statistics Poland reported a marginal 0.4% decline in completed dwellings during the first nine months of 2025, while housing starts fell by 8.5% and building permits dropped 13.4%. High levels of unsold inventory, rising labor costs, scarce land availability, and regulatory uncertainty are prompting developers to delay or pause new projects. Many are prioritizing the sale of existing stock before committing to new developments, resulting in a slowdown of forward-looking supply.
Despite this cautious approach, the current stock of completed homes remains high, providing buyers with ample choices. As financing conditions gradually improve, with potential interest rate cuts and lower mortgage costs, developers may cautiously resume new projects. Analysts anticipate that the supply-demand balance will slowly normalize, with end-user-driven demand gradually reducing today’s elevated inventory levels.
Poland’s residential market in 2025 reflects a maturing cycle. After years of government interventions, rapid price growth, and pandemic-driven surges, the market is now stabilizing. Prices are mostly flat, sales are steady, and developers are treading carefully amid abundant supply. With moderate demand and improving financing conditions, the market appears set for measured growth in 2026, offering opportunities for homebuyers while discouraging speculative excess. For buyers, this is a time of relative predictability, while developers focus on clearing inventory before embarking on the next phase of expansion.
