India May Become Too Hot For Construction By The 2030

McKinsey has raised the prospect of India experiencing more lethal heat waves by the 2030s that make construction and other outdoor work lethal. It says periods when outdoor work is unsafe will increase 15% by 2030 compared with today’s levels, with an economic cost o

BY Realty Plus
Published - Tuesday, 08 Dec, 2020

India May Become Too Hot For Construction By The 2030

McKinsey has raised the prospect of India experiencing more lethal heat waves by the 2030s that make construction and other outdoor work lethal. It says periods when outdoor work is unsafe will increase 15% by 2030 compared with today’s levels, with an economic cost of up to $250bn. Its study suggests rises in heat and humidity could make the subcontinent one of the first places in the world to experience heat waves that “cross the survivability limit for a healthy human being resting in the shade”. It says there is a 40% chance that this could occur as early as the 2030s. According to McKinsey, heat waves in the hottest parts of India could begin to breach 34° by 2030, close to the record of 35.4° recorded in the Gulf a few years ago. However, the effect of urban “heat islands” may push temperatures above the survival threshold in cities. The effect of this scenario on construction and other outdoor industries will be a rapid decrease in productivity. McKinsey estimates that the number of daylight hours during which outdoor work is unsafe will increase 15% by 2030, compared with today’s levels. It adds that addressing the risk of lethal heat waves by 2030 using air-conditioning could come with capital costs of up to $110bn. It comments: “This is significant because India’s economy is highly dependent on heat-exposed labour. As of 2017, heat-exposed work produces about 50% of GDP, drives about 30% of GDP growth, and employs about 75% of the labour force, some 380 million people we calculate that lost labour hours due to increasing heat and humidity could put approximately 2.5–4.5% of GDP at risk by 2030, equivalent to roughly $150–250bn.”