As rising sea levels gradually swallow the world’s low-lying island nations, many citizens will have no choice but to leave their homes behind. In Tuvalu, one of the world’s most climate-threatened archipelagos, the migration has already begun.
Nearly a third of Tuvalu’s roughly 11,000 residents are seeking Australian visas to escape the encroaching waters. In 2023, Australia announced that it would launch these visas as part of a bilateral treaty it signed with Tuvalu—the world’s first to create a special visa in response to climate change. Australia will offer 280 visas per year, and the first batch became available on June 16. More than 3,000 Tuvaluans applied.
Tuvalu is located in the west-central Pacific Ocean and has an average elevation of less than 10 feet (3 meters). Some studies suggest many of its islands will become uninhabitable due to flooding, saltwater intrusion, storm surge, and erosion before the end of the century, according to the World Bank. NASA researchers, for example, have predicted that Tuvalu and other Pacific Island nations will see at least 6 inches (15 centimeters) of sea level rise in the next 30 years alone.
Funafuti, Tuvalu’s capital and its most populous atoll, has already experienced a sea-level rise of about 5.5 inches (14 centimeters) over the past three decades, according to NASA’s Sea Level Change Team. That’s approximately 1.5 times the global average rate. Funafuti is home to 60% of Tuvalu’s population, and by 2050, scientists predict half of its area will become submerged by daily tides.
Tuvaluans are already feeling the effects of rising seas. The constant influx of saltwater has contaminated the country’s farmland and groundwater, forcing citizens to rely on rainwater collection tanks and central raised gardens. This has made the island nation more vulnerable to droughts, water shortages, and disease outbreaks, according to UNICEF Australia.
Tuvalu has implemented strategies to combat sea level rise, particularly through the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project (TCAP), which the government launched in 2017. There have been successes, including improvements to coastal hazard monitoring, land reclamations, and coastal protections for outer islands. Still, many challenges remain.
As Tuvalu faces the reality of sinking beneath the waves, the government is working to preserve its land and statehood by creating a digital copy of the country. The project aims to “recreate [Tuvalu’s] land, archive its rich history and culture, and move all governmental functions into a digital space,” according to its website.
Tuvalu could be the first country to disappear as a result of climate change, but it almost certainly won’t be the last. Despite accounting for just 0.02% of global emissions, the Pacific Islands face far greater climate risks than any other corner of the planet. As more and more Tuvaluans make the difficult decision to leave their homes, citizens of many other island nations will get a glimpse of what’s to come.
