Dubai’s residential real estate market continues to rank among the world’s fastest-growing, and the building blocks for further price appreciation are firmly in place. A steady inflow of expatriates, large-scale construction activity and sustained government-backed economic support are keeping demand strong across both off-plan and ready homes.
The key question for buyers and investors is no longer whether the market will grow, but how much prices could rise by 2026 and where opportunities are likely to be strongest.
Market forecasts suggest that price growth will be steady rather than explosive, pointing to a more mature and sustainable phase for Dubai’s property cycle. In the primary, or off-plan, segment, prices are expected to rise at a moderate pace of about 3–5 percent annually. With a large number of new projects being launched, supply is expanding steadily, preventing sharp price spikes. By mid-2026, off-plan prices could be 6–10 percent higher than current levels.
The secondary market, which includes completed and ready-to-move-in homes, is likely to outperform. Here, demand continues to exceed supply, especially in established neighbourhoods with full infrastructure. Industry estimates suggest prices in this segment could rise by 5–8 percent each year, translating into cumulative growth of 12–16 percent by 2026.
Areas such as Dubai Marina, Business Bay, The Greens and Jumeirah Lake Towers are attracting the strongest buyer interest. These mature locations offer a combination of limited new supply, strong rental demand and relatively stable yields, making them favourites among both end-users and investors.
Several structural factors explain why prices are expected to keep rising. Dubai’s population continues to grow and is projected to cross four million residents by 2026. According to the Dubai Statistics Centre, more than 175,000 new expatriates moved to the city during 2023 and 2024, one of the highest inflows seen in a decade. This directly boosts demand for both rentals and home ownership.
Economic stability is another key driver. The UAE economy is growing at around 3 percent annually, encouraging capital inflows and business expansion. While about 40,000 residential units were delivered in 2023 and another 38,000 in 2024, population growth has outpaced housing supply by nearly two times. This gap continues to support prices, particularly in the ready-home segment.
Government policy has also played a crucial role. Residency-linked investment schemes, including the Golden Visa, have made property ownership more attractive for foreign buyers. In 2024, company registrations in Dubai’s free zones rose by 32 percent, leading to an influx of mid- and senior-level professionals. This group typically targets homes in the upper-middle price bracket, adding depth to demand.
Infrastructure spending remains a powerful catalyst. New metro lines, transport links and tourism-focused developments are improving connectivity and boosting property values in nearby districts. At the same time, inflation remains low at around 2 percent, making real estate a more appealing long-term store of value than cash.
Between 65,000 and 70,000 new housing units are expected to enter the market during 2025 and 2026. However, forecasts by global property consultants suggest this supply will still fall short of demand from expatriates and investors, reinforcing the case for gradual price appreciation.
Industry experts believe the market is being driven by fundamentals rather than speculation. Olga Poletskaya, General Director of Colife Invest, says Dubai is entering a phase of predictable, sustainable growth. She notes that buyers who enter the market today are well-positioned to see gains by 2026, provided they focus on asset quality and location. According to her, a large share of properties met growth expectations in 2025, with further appreciation likely.
For investors, the decision to buy or sell depends largely on location and time horizon. Buying before 2026 continues to make sense in premium areas such as Palm Jumeirah and Downtown Dubai, where rental yields often range between 6 and 9 percent annually. These markets are considered liquid and resilient, offering both income and long-term capital appreciation.
Emerging districts with established core infrastructure also present opportunities. In such areas, price growth of 5–7 percent over the next few years is widely seen as achievable, especially as connectivity and amenities improve.
On the other hand, selling may be a sensible option in segments where oversupply risks are rising. Some mass-market communities, including parts of Jumeirah Village Circle, are seeing intense competition due to high inventory levels. In these areas, price corrections of 10–15 percent cannot be ruled out, making timing critical for investors seeking to exit.
Dubai continues to position itself not just as a lifestyle destination but as one of the world’s most resilient real estate investment markets. For investors watching the next two years closely, the window leading up to 2026 could prove decisive.
