Some of the largest US banks singled out office commercial real estate as an area of growing concern, with property values falling and more borrowers defaulting on their loans amid rising interest rates and a slowing economy.
Faced with questions from analysts about their exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) and potential of losses, executives at Wells Fargo & Co, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co said conditions were getting worse for the sector.
“Weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office,” Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said. The bank set aside an additional US$643 million in the first quarter for credit losses, mainly driven by expectations of higher CRE loan losses.
Stress in the CRE sector could have broad implications for banks and the economy, as losses emanating there can tighten credit availability and exacerbate a downturn. JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said he expected tighter lending conditions, most of it around certain real estate things and that increases the odds of a recession.
Banks represent 54 per cent of the overall US$5.7 trillion CRE market, with the small lenders holding 70 per cent of CRE loans. More than US$1.4 trillion in US CRE loans will mature by 2027, with some US$270 billion coming due this year.
Loans backed by offices make up the biggest share of the maturing debt load, followed by multifamily and retail properties. The question now facing many borrowers is whether they can refinance or restructure loans to avoid default, bankers and analysts said. Older properties with high vacancies face the greatest refinancing challenge, they said.
Office properties are currently facing the greatest refinancing risks as companies reassess their needs, said John Guarnera, an analyst at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. Bankers and analysts said the greatest stress in the office sector is likely to be felt in major cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Seattle.
The regions with the highest level of office stress are located in the north-east and tech-heavy West Coast while southern cities have a lower share of risky loans. As the epicenter for the technology industry downturn, California’s CRE market has been hit hard. San Francisco and Los Angeles had an average office vacancy rate of 21.6 per cent in the first quarter, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield. Loans for San Francisco offices now face the highest risk of default of all US metro areas. A subsidiary of asset manager Brookfield, for example, defaulted in February on US$783 million in loans linked to two Los Angeles buildings, a filing showed. Citigroup and Wells Fargo were among the initial lenders.
On an analyst call, Wells Fargo chief financial officer Mike Santomassimo said the office market was showing signs of weakness due to lower demand, higher financing costs and challenging capital market conditions. “While we haven’t seen this translate to meaningful loss content yet, we expect to see more stress over time,” he said.
