State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department’s report, SBI Ecowrap, said that India is likely to get the tag of the world's third largest economy by FY28.
The path taken by India since 2014 reveals that India is likely to get the tag of the third largest economy in 2027 (or FY28) based on actual GDP data as on March 2023, a movement of seven places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked tenth and two years earlier than our previous forecast of 2029," said SBI's economists.
It further said that India should surpass both Japan and Germany in 2027 at the current rate of growth. Interestingly, the incremental increase by India between 2022-2027, is more than the current size of Australia’s economy at $1.8 trillion., the report said.
"At this rate, India is likely to add $0.75 trillion in every 2 years, implying that India is all set to touch $20 trillion by 2047, at least on current numbers. India’s global share in GDP will cross 4 per cent by 2027," the report mentioned.
Additionally, it said that there is an increasing consensus that India's GDP in Q1FY24 is likely to surpass 8 per cent, thus pushing India's GDP growth to beyond 6.5 per cent in FY24. "We firmly believe that in a world that is ravaged by uncertainties, 6.5-7 per cent growth is the new normal," the report stated. It also added that growing at 6.5-7 per cent is the new normal for the country. Stating that the economy is in a ''sustained goldilocks'' period, the economists at the state-owned lender said becoming the third largest economy will be a ''remarkable achievement by any standards'' for India.
At least two Indian states, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, will break the $500 billion mark in 2027 (or FY28) when India achieves the third place in global economy, adding the Yogi Adityanath-ruled northern state is the ''land of the midnight sun''. The GDP size of major Indian states in 2027 will be more than the size of some of the Asian and European countries like Vietnam, Norway and so on.
