South Korea’s housing market is heading toward its lowest apartment supply in a decade, with just 287,432 units expected to be move-in ready in 2025 — a 15% drop from 2022 levels. The downturn reflects a multi-year slump in pre-sale activity and housing permits, now culminating in what analysts call a “move-in cliff.”
Cities like Gwangju, Busan, and Sejong are seeing the steepest declines. Gwangju’s completions fell 65%, from 13,716 units to just 4,820. Busan dropped 58%, while Sejong saw a 51% decline. In absolute terms, Gyeonggi Province lost nearly 40,000 units, and Incheon shed over 20,000, making the Seoul metro area the hardest hit.
Yet, not all regions are contracting. Jeju Island saw completions surge from 132 units to 1,493, while South Gyeongsang and North Gyeongsang are each on track to more than double their housing supply. Seoul, notably, is bucking the trend with a projected 18,960 new units, offering a rare upswing amid the broader slowdown.
The supply crunch is expected to impact rental trends, especially during the fall moving season. Monthly occupancy rates are forecast to dip below average in September and October, with volatility in rental agreements likely to rise.
Nationwide, 14 out of 17 provinces are seeing supply declines, underscoring the scale of the slowdown. While Seoul’s rebound may offer some relief, the overall contraction signals a challenging year ahead for developers, renters, and policymakers alike.
