The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), going forward, would to deploy robust statistical data and machine learning (ML) techniques to strengthen real-time tracking of economic activity in a bid to effectively deal with the impact caused by the pandemic, RBI officials said in the latest edition of RBI Bulletin.
The RBI has recently come out with weekly-activity indices to track the latest developments in the Indian economy with the least possible lag. Two different weekly indices have been developed using daily/weekly indicators – a 7-indicator weekly activity index (WAI) using the dynamic factor model reflecting changes in economic activity on a year- on-year basis; and a 15-indicator weekly diffusion index (WDI) reflecting directional movement on a sequential basis which complements the model-based WAI.
Highlighting the importance of these real-time monitoring systems of the Indian economy, RBI officials said, “With faster innovation and realignment of production processes due to the pandemic, the extant economic indicators fell short of keeping pace with rapid changes in the economy. This called for supplementing them with additional data, preferably with lower time lag. For the central banks, timely information on economic activity was crucial, particularly for exercising precise judgement in the monetary policy decisions. During each round of the monetary policy of the RBI, available information set for decision-making was found to be highly asynchronous.”
Stating that WDI presents sequential movement in activity to present an aggregate picture on the direction of trend movement, they said these indices, apart from providing the weekly trajectory for the selected set of economic variables, also act as a robust indicator of the quarterly GDP. They said due to its timely availability, WAI holds the potential to bridge the information gap in the monthly high frequency indicators – a crucial input for monetary policy deliberations.
“The WAI tracks macroeconomic variables like monthly IIP and quarterly GDP reasonably well. In particular, the 4-week MA and the 13-week MA of the WAI provide nowcasts of IIP and GDP growth immediately after the end of the reference month or the quarter. The weekly indices can supplement the more sophisticated nowcasting models of GDP. Presently, the set of daily and weekly high frequency indicators is limited but growing at a fast pace since the outbreak of the pandemic,” they added.
